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July-August 2010

Scanning the Future of Law Enforcement: A Trend Analysis

By Eric Meade To understand the potential futures of crime and justice, one must explore a full range of issues, the connection of which to law enforcement may at first seem tangential at best. Our perspectives and behaviors relative to crime and justice are informed by larger changes taking place around us—socially, technologically, environmentally, economically, and politically. Scanning the horizon for trends and developments that may influence the future of crime and justice informs our strategies to create the future we prefer.

Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Forces in the Natural and Institutional Environments

For nearly half a century, Forecasting International has been tracking the forces that shape our future. Some 20 years ago, we codified our observations into a list of trends that forms the basis for much of our work. For each of our projects, we compare the specific circumstances of an industry or organization with these general trends and project their interactions. This often allows us to form a remarkably detailed picture of what lies ahead. Part II of this report covers trends in energy, the environment, technology, management, and institutions. PDF available. Part 1: Economic and Social Trends and Their Impacts.

Youth at Risk

By Gene Stephens A quick scan of research on the subject of “youth at risk” yields a plethora of statistics and analysis of varying scope (worldwide or nation by nation). The United Nations estimates that the world today has 3 billion people under 25, and the youth population is projected to increase to 3.5 billion by 2020. In a new look at the plan he proposed a dozen years ago, a criminal-justice scholar draws on the insights of a Delphi panel of experts to develop new strategies for improving the prospects for today’s at-risk youth. PDF available.

Visions:

Garden Atriums: A Model for Sustainable Building By Stuart Rose When THE FUTURIST first reported on the Garden Atrium sustainable housing project we created in southeastern Virginia (March-April 2002), it was just under way. Since then, as the project has moved slowly toward completion, I began to research what we had not initially included in our project that would be essential to sustainable living. PDF available.

World Trends and Forecasts

Living in the Line of Fire // Social Networking and Open Government// Down-to-Earth NASA // Homes are Getting Smarter _____________________________________________________________ May-June 2010

The Age of the Interface

By Richard Yonck

The word interface is defined as a connection between systems, equipment, or people. It’s most commonly associated with computing, but it is applicable to practically any human–machine activity. Interfaces exist to facilitate interaction. As Apple Computer put it, “The less alike two entities are, the more obvious the need for a well-designed interface becomes.”

From processing codes punched out on cards to interpreting our brain waves, our computers are progressively learning how to read our minds. Future interfaces will help man and machine understand each other better.

Coming, The Biggest Boom Ever

By McKinley Conway

The economic recession has prompted many to duck and cover, and many economists are making very pessimistic short-term and long-term forecasts. However, scrutiny of the factors at play reveals that the coming decade will bring a great deal of opportunity. Get ready for a period of unprecedented global development that will provide new opportunities for billions around the world. New economic growth is being driven by emerging industries ranging from nanotechnology to solar and wind power.

Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World, Part 1

Economic and Social Trends and Their Impacts

For nearly half a century, Forecasting International has been tracking the forces that shape our future. Some 20 years ago, we codified our observations into a list of trends that forms the basis for much of our work. For each of our projects, we compare the specific circumstances of an industry or organization with these general trends and project their interactions. This often allows us to form a remarkably detailed picture of what lies ahead. Part One of the latest edition of FI’s periodic trend report tracks economic, population, societal, family, and work trends, illustrating the multifaceted challenges facing individuals and their institutions at all levels, from the household to the globe at large.

March-April 2010

The Singularity’s Impact on Business Leaders: A Scenario

By Barton Kunstler

The “Human Singularity” refers to the radical fusion of the human body with technology to achive levels of mental acuity and physical ability that eclipse anything humans have previously known. One critical social function that will be affected by the singularity is leadership, a chief defining factor of a society's values, relations, and objectives. Leaders will bear much of the burden of social evolution when the “Enhanced Singular Individuals” (ESIs) of the Singularity Era enter the general population of “Norms” (those without technological enhancements). The leaders of every organization and group will be compelled to come to terms with the ESIs' advanced capabilities and the tensions, ambitions, and alliances attendant upon them.

Smart People, Dumb Decisions

By Michael J. Mauboussin

Chances are you’re unaware of the limits to your abilities, unappreciative of the challenges that lie ahead, and uninformed of all that can go wrong. Don’t worry — you’re not alone.

Roadmap to the Electric Car Economy

By Michael Horn

Global, Mobile, Virtual, and Social: The College Campus of Tomorrow

By John Dew

An educator and strategic planner outlines the trends leading to a long-forecast future for colleges and universities: Global standardization of education content and accreditation, greater diversity in the student body, and more options for where, when, and how learning takes place.

World Trends and Forecasts

Animal Species Find Strength in Numbers

Wiring the Elderly

Hopping Robots

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January-February 2010

How to Feed Eight Billion People

By Lester R. Brown

The world is entering a new food era. It will be marked by higher food prices, rapidly growing numbers of hungry people, and an intensifying competition for land and water resources that crosses national boundaries when food-importing countries buy or lease vast tracts of land in other countries. Because some of the countries where land is being acquired do not have enough land to adequately feed their own people, the stage is being set for future conflicts.

The Post-Scarcity World of 2050

By Stephen Aguilar-Millan, Ann Feeney, Amy Oberg, and Elizabeth Rudd

The world between 2010 and 2050 is likely to be characterized by scarcities: a scarcity of credit, a scarcity of food, a scarcity of energy, a scarcity of water, and a scarcity of mineral resources. While it is important to understand the nature of these scarcities, their causes, and their cures, our main emphasis in this article rests upon what comes after the period of scarcity.

Deciding Our Futures

As the world becomes more complex, the likelihood of making poor decisions about our future increases, as does the cost of bad outcomes. This special section offers insights from futurists on ways that we can come to grips with the flaws in our decision-making processes and improve our strategies for making critical decisions about the future.

1. Decision Making Under Pressure by Stan Shapiro
2. Decision Modeling by The Futures Group International
3. Robust Decision Making: Coping with Uncertainty by Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes
4. Managing Your Mind by Michael J. Mauboussin

World Trends and Forecasts

The Science of “Tipping Points”

Saving a Tribal Language

A Search Engine that Listens

Murderous Economics

Networked Learning

Retirement Crisis for Hispanic Americans

Smarter Trash

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November-December 2009

Outlook 2010

Welcome to the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report, in which the editors have selected the most thought-provoking forecasts and ideas appearing in THE FUTURIST over the past year.

The Politics of Climate Change

By Roger Howard

Many experts argue that a complex, global problem like climate change can only be solved with global cooperation. But an alternative scenario might see more-advanced nations using their access to climate data as a weapon against rivals, in a new form of information “haves” versus “have-nots.”

Why the World May Turn to Nuclear Power

By Richard Stieglitz with Rick Docksai

Nuclear power, resisted by many, may provide a long-term solution, and it has come a long way since Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.

PLUS: Second Thoughts on Nuclear Power By Michael Mariotte Cancer, toxic spills, and damage to ecosystems from mining might come with nuclear energy production.

World Trends and Forecasts

Closing the Gender Gap in Online Gaming

Recession's Impacts on Lifestyles

U.S. Seeks Greater Role for Unmanned Vehicles

_________________________________________________________________ September-October 2010

Finding a Job in the 21st Century

By John A. Challenger The current recession, expected to be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, will surely put to rest those old concerns about looming labor shortages, right? Probably not. Seek training, be flexible, and get hired in the fast-moving working world of the future.

The Global Talent Crisis

By Edward Gordon We are in the midst of a global job and talent upheaval, the most remarkable of any job and talent change since the Industrial Revolution and encompassing every aspect of the global economy. Contrary to popular opinion, there are plenty of open jobs. What's missing are candidates with skills.

Peak Oil and Strategic Resource Wars

By Roger Howard At various points over the coming decades, many of the world’s key oil producers will be forced to accept that their worst nightmare is no longer the stuff of dreams. As existing wells start to run dry and new reserves prove increasingly elusive, leaders in many oil-producing nations will have to confront the very real prospect of surviving without the resources that have long bestowed fabulous wealth and prosperity upon lands that would otherwise be bleak and barren. When the oil fields run dry — and they will — what will happen to the economies of petroleum producers?

New End, A New Beginning

By John L. Petersen “The End Is Near” has always been doomsayers’ favorite slogan, but is it now finally true? The trends suggest the end of an era may indeed be near, as growing complexity and proliferating crises threaten to obliterate “life as we know it.” The time is now to prepare for the life we don’t yet know.

World War 3.0: Ten Critical Trends for Cybersecurity

By Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies “Cybersecurity is the soft underbelly of this country,” outgoing U.S. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell recently declared. Technological advances and greater connectivity may be making our systems less rather than more secure. A special panel of military, intelligence, and forecasting experts analyzes the trends that may be leading the world to cyberwar.

World Trends and Forecasts

Preparing for a New Pandemic

Newspapers Face the Final Edition

Ammonia, the Fuel of the Future

Africa, Latin America Seek Fiscal Reforms

Bad Attitudes, Bad Business

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July-August 2010

The Automation of Invention

By Robert Plotkin

Yesterday’s inventors toiled away in workshops, painstakingly designing, building, testing, and refining their creations. In contrast, tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writing descriptions of the problems they want to solve, and then hand those descriptions over to computers to work out the solutions.

Mining Information from the Data Clouds

By Erica Orange

This cloud of data that we daily contribute to may yield a wealth of new, vital information. “Cloud mining” may soon allow us to predict behaviors of the masses and even offer advice, according to a business futurist.

Ten Forces Driving Business Futures

By Michael Richarme

In a struggling economy, the forces of change are putting more pressures on businesses and from more directions. Success requires both staying on top of current trends and spotting new ones over the horizon.

A Rendezvous with Austerity: How American Consumers Will Learn New Habits

By David Pearce Snyder

The forces of global economic retraction and technological evolution are altering the outlook for American consumers. If they can tighten their belts awhile, they may yet see a new form of prosperity—one whose well-being is more sustainable.

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May-June 2010

Own Your Own Island Nation

By Thomas Frey

Who says they’ve stopped making real estate? One futurist explores the ultimate start-up: the private country.

Your Solar-Powered Future: It’s Closer Than You Thought

By James M. Higgins

Solar energy may soon power our homes, office buildings, automobiles, and iPods.

Synthesis: An Interdisciplinary Discipline

By Bruce L. Tow and David A. Gilliam

As the professional world becomes more and more specialized, it’s time for today’s—and tomorrow’s— leaders to embrace a multidisciplinary approach to problem solving.

World Trends and Forecasts

No College Student Left Behind?

Nuclear Power’s Costs

Recession and Labor-Force Growth?

Singularity University Set to Open

Healthy People, Healthy Communities

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March-April 2009

Timeline for the Future: Potential Developments and Likely Impacts

By Marvin J. Cetron

Designer babies, fiber optic plants, synthetic celebrities, and more: A timeline suggests when we’ll see the evolving technologies that will radically reshape human life. PDF available.

Emerging Technologies and the Global Crisis of Maturity

By William E. Halal

As technological development surges on, the ability of institutions to handle change is stifled by outmoded social systems. To survive the technological revolution in the midst of global crisis, a social revolution is also needed that will bring institutions and civilization to a higher stage of maturity.

Algae Power: Will Pond Scum Reduce Petroleum Dependence?

One remedy for the world's oil addiction could come from the same organism from which most petroleum was made. Algae may use our waste to power cars of the future (added commentary by Nick Hodge).

A Realistic Energy Strategy

By Tsvi Bisk

Energy policy must be realistic or it won’t work, says strategy analyst Tsvi Bisk. Fortunately, clean and sustainable energy is more realistic than you may think.

Saving the Environment: Five Creative Approaches

By Clifton Anderson

The actions of five individuals offer insights into how best to move toward a more environmentally sustainable future.

World Trends and Forecasts

Stopping the Use of Child Soldiers

Racial Prejudice Declines in Britain

Oil Exports May Soon Dry Up

By Chris Nelder

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January-February 2009

Marketing a More-Healthful Future: A Moderate Revolution

By John Sweeney

Advertisers have cleverly coaxed us to supersize our waistlines, while urban planners and a knowledge-based economy have removed the necessity for us to move around. For a fitter future, we’ll need the willpower to reverse these trends.

Toward a Fitter Future: Why Education Must Get Physical

By Kenneth W. Harris

Positive trends toward a healthier future society include innovative fitness equipment and activities that are appealing to adults. But the fitness ethos must begin earlier in life, and education should reintroduce physical activity for children, argues a futurist consultant.

Immortality 2.0

By David Gelles

A Silicon Valley insider looks at California’s transhumanist movement.

The Design Economy: A Brave New World for Businesses and Consumers

By Thomas A. Easton

A cutting-edge technology may soon converge with an innovative business model, giving consumers the power to download and print their own products — auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen sink.

World Trends and Forecasts

Seoul: Model of Sustainability

Teens and Cell Phones

Youth Depression and Suicide

Investing in Water

When Mentors and Mentees Switch Roles

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